Monday, January 31, 2005
1/31 Trading
Cut OSTK options at loss. Didn't get up early. Could have sold for profit.
AAPL strong. Regret didn't buy more.
AAPL strong. Regret didn't buy more.
Friday, January 28, 2005
1/28 trading
Bot back AAPL calls I sold 2 days ago. It's strong. and it proved to be wrong to sell it.
Will give YHOO 2 more days. If still weak, will cut my options.
ATVI is pretty strong. hold pretty well around 22. It reports earning on 2/7.
Gamble on OSTK once, bot Feb 55 calls. Catching falling knife. Try my luck.
Will give YHOO 2 more days. If still weak, will cut my options.
ATVI is pretty strong. hold pretty well around 22. It reports earning on 2/7.
Gamble on OSTK once, bot Feb 55 calls. Catching falling knife. Try my luck.
Thursday, January 27, 2005
Is DWA a buying?
Today's point gainers
3:00PM Point Gainers List : Issues pacing the way on a point basis include: ORCT +11.22, CME +8.24, HRS +7.72, DGX +5.28, AFFX +4.54, WBSN +4.23, GMR +4.12, ACV +3.69, OXPS +3.57, GCOR +3.54, HAR +3.38, DRIV +3.13, KMRT +3.06, CVD +3.00, TDY +2.89, MSTR +2.87, DLX +2.72, RBK +2.71, ACI +2.67, UDI +2.65, CNX +2.55, OI +2.37, LSS +2.36, KWK +2.30, OSTK +2.30, TALX +2.26, BRY +2.21, OSG +2.21, EXM +2.20, AVID +2.15, MCRS +2.13, FRO +2.08, GMT +2.04.
1/27 earning report
Watch:
MSTR
SNDK (not like LEXR)
XRTX
SEBL
SCSC
FDRY
BRCM
OSTK
MSTR
SNDK (not like LEXR)
XRTX
SEBL
SCSC
FDRY
BRCM
OSTK
short term bottom
QQQQ rebounds on EMA 200, I think it's time to buy. In fact, I bought a lot when QQQQ on EMA 50. So I am under water right now. But I believe we are in short term bull and I have my QQQQ target price on 42 in two months.
1/27 comments
Sold NVDA proved to be a big mistake.
bot YHOO also a mistake.
FFIV weak, it's going to fill the 44-46 gap.
NTES resume its down trend. shit, didn't put on rebound. my fault.
bot YHOO also a mistake.
FFIV weak, it's going to fill the 44-46 gap.
NTES resume its down trend. shit, didn't put on rebound. my fault.
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
1/26 market review & actions
Got up later.
Missed EBAY, GOOG, MACR which I picked up last night. sigh.
FFIV is hard to predict. IMO, the percent of institution hold is too high(95%). I believe some will reduce the position. In this case, it's hard to up. But for same reason, it's easy to manipulate. and with high short interest. It might spike up some day, which is the time to short.
Sold most ATVI options, it moves too slow. Sold all NVDA options, it's relatively weak.
Biggest mistake is missed MACR. Its option is cheap as IV is low. even point ascpect it's not up so much, the option can easily double, while GOOG option may not double though its stock up more.
Bot some YHOO 35 options. 34-35 is kind of strong support for YHOO.
Missed EBAY, GOOG, MACR which I picked up last night. sigh.
FFIV is hard to predict. IMO, the percent of institution hold is too high(95%). I believe some will reduce the position. In this case, it's hard to up. But for same reason, it's easy to manipulate. and with high short interest. It might spike up some day, which is the time to short.
Sold most ATVI options, it moves too slow. Sold all NVDA options, it's relatively weak.
Biggest mistake is missed MACR. Its option is cheap as IV is low. even point ascpect it's not up so much, the option can easily double, while GOOG option may not double though its stock up more.
Bot some YHOO 35 options. 34-35 is kind of strong support for YHOO.
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
1/24 close
Good earnings:
SGTL
INSP (missed this one!!!)
STK
ctx
CYMI
FRK
Bads:
LEXR
RFMD
SGTL
INSP (missed this one!!!)
STK
ctx
CYMI
FRK
Bads:
LEXR
RFMD
1/25 market watch
Naz hounds around 2020 most of the day and closed at 2019.95, amazing.
this might be a short term bottom. and we need see the late development. Current place is extremely important IMO. down another 30 points will make it confirmed downtrend. while rebound up will mark it as correction. The chance is a sliny favor to down side.
GOOG down to as much as 176 today and EBAY breaks down 80 for short period. They acted just I predicted on MITBBS: long ATVI, AAPL, NVDA, short EBAY, GOOG, NTES. in which only NTES goes to the opposite of my prediction.
After hour, most companies reported good earning. ERTS up, which in symphany ATVI up 30c. GOOG up $2, EBAY also up, the reason maybe people expecting market up tomorrow and these two will up more from oversold condition.
After hour, NQ is right at 1500.
Stocks to watch:
1. MACR, it holds abpve 30 after gap up several days ago. need to see if the gap will be filled or a run away gap.
2. GOOG, it might form a reversal at 180 area.
3. EBAY, it might hit short term bottom. But it has more down side room, because I believe some institutions started to dump EBAY with its limited growth.
4. FFIV, watch if it can break up resistence at 50 or head down to fill the gap.
this might be a short term bottom. and we need see the late development. Current place is extremely important IMO. down another 30 points will make it confirmed downtrend. while rebound up will mark it as correction. The chance is a sliny favor to down side.
GOOG down to as much as 176 today and EBAY breaks down 80 for short period. They acted just I predicted on MITBBS: long ATVI, AAPL, NVDA, short EBAY, GOOG, NTES. in which only NTES goes to the opposite of my prediction.
After hour, most companies reported good earning. ERTS up, which in symphany ATVI up 30c. GOOG up $2, EBAY also up, the reason maybe people expecting market up tomorrow and these two will up more from oversold condition.
After hour, NQ is right at 1500.
Stocks to watch:
1. MACR, it holds abpve 30 after gap up several days ago. need to see if the gap will be filled or a run away gap.
2. GOOG, it might form a reversal at 180 area.
3. EBAY, it might hit short term bottom. But it has more down side room, because I believe some institutions started to dump EBAY with its limited growth.
4. FFIV, watch if it can break up resistence at 50 or head down to fill the gap.
Monday, January 24, 2005
1/23 Report
Earnings Calendar : After the close, watch for earnings reports from ALTR, CAI, FILE, JDAS, LSS, NFLX, and SLAB, among others. Tomorrow morning, look for results from co's such as ADTN, AGR.A, AKS, BLS, EAT, CDWC, DD, EMC, FCS, JNJ, MRK, MER, PBG, SGP, SLB, TLAB, and X.
New 52-Week Lows: Semi/Semi Equipment : Semiconductor/Semi equipment stocks are dominating the new 52-week low list. Even a strong defense from Smith Barney this morning could not prevent AMAT from making a new low. Sectors with strong representation include Recent IPOs (CGTK, CSCD, JRJC, LONG, MEMY, RHEO, SMI, VNUS), Airlines (AAI, JBLU), Tech (CHINA, JDSU, LOOK, NTOP, RHAT, SWIR), Semi/Semi Equipment (AMAT, CRUS, CYMI, ESST, ICST, IFX, ISSI, MU, SILI, SMI, SSTI, VECO), Retailers (CPWM, JNY).
New 52-Week Lows: Semi/Semi Equipment : Semiconductor/Semi equipment stocks are dominating the new 52-week low list. Even a strong defense from Smith Barney this morning could not prevent AMAT from making a new low. Sectors with strong representation include Recent IPOs (CGTK, CSCD, JRJC, LONG, MEMY, RHEO, SMI, VNUS), Airlines (AAI, JBLU), Tech (CHINA, JDSU, LOOK, NTOP, RHAT, SWIR), Semi/Semi Equipment (AMAT, CRUS, CYMI, ESST, ICST, IFX, ISSI, MU, SILI, SMI, SSTI, VECO), Retailers (CPWM, JNY).
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Lesson for CME
down big on 1/3 and 1/4. Again on 1/12 with big vol. Re-assume the downtrend on 1/21 and 1/22. More downside ahead. Definitely a good short on 1/13.
Lesson: after the downtrend assume on 1/12. should start a short position.
Lesson: after the downtrend assume on 1/12. should start a short position.
Friday, January 21, 2005
Another Bloody day!
Another bloody day across wall st. Not a time to be aggressive, unless you know the direction.
Day trade NGPS today, I predict the short covering at the end, and I was right, but I sold too early when I watch the market, which was turning worse and worse. Bought at 19.9, and sold at 20.2. Wish I sold them at 21.2. DAMN!
Day trade NGPS today, I predict the short covering at the end, and I was right, but I sold too early when I watch the market, which was turning worse and worse. Bought at 19.9, and sold at 20.2. Wish I sold them at 21.2. DAMN!
1/21/2005 trading record
in the morning:
closed YHOO calls at 0.65. lose 1.1 for each call. 奶奶的
NTES puts closed too early. the downtrend just started. more down ahead.
closed YHOO calls at 0.65. lose 1.1 for each call. 奶奶的
NTES puts closed too early. the downtrend just started. more down ahead.
Thursday, January 20, 2005
NTES review
Today NTES down 2.5 (as of 3:22pm)
More down ahead.
And bot Feb 45 puts at 1.95. damn expensive.
亡羊补牢
教训: 昨天没买NTES puts.
Edit at 3:54pm:
Sold puts at 2.10
NTES seems strong. should be because of high short interest.
Edit on 1/21:
他妈的, PUT又卖早了. NTES今天又爹两块.
More down ahead.
And bot Feb 45 puts at 1.95. damn expensive.
亡羊补牢
教训: 昨天没买NTES puts.
Edit at 3:54pm:
Sold puts at 2.10
NTES seems strong. should be because of high short interest.
Edit on 1/21:
他妈的, PUT又卖早了. NTES今天又爹两块.
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
NTES research
NTES already penetrate 50 SMA, and touching 50 EMA.
Ususally after stock 击穿 50EMA, it will accelerate to down.
and based on SNDA's action, it shows MM are supporting NTES.
but in this market, I don't believe it can hold long.
So it's a put candidate IMO. The only concern is the high short interest.
Ususally after stock 击穿 50EMA, it will accelerate to down.
and based on SNDA's action, it shows MM are supporting NTES.
but in this market, I don't believe it can hold long.
So it's a put candidate IMO. The only concern is the high short interest.
review on my post about GOOG yesterday
regretly that I didn't buy GOOG puts.
GOOG double head formed. expect more down ahead.
GOOG double head formed. expect more down ahead.
some thoughts & actions on EBAY, FFIV
closed FFIV Jan 45 puts at 2 when stock is 44.5
The reason is that the premium is too high considering there's only 2 days to expire.
FFIV reported good earning after hour. stock rises to 47.4 after hour.
EBAY misses. stock gets 10 points dive after hour.
when last week EBAY raised fees, I should have put it. It shows that EBAY cannot find enough growth but has to squeeze profit out of poor sellers on its website.
From chart, EBAY form a roll over U head. expect down to 70 in 2 months.
The reason is that the premium is too high considering there's only 2 days to expire.
FFIV reported good earning after hour. stock rises to 47.4 after hour.
EBAY misses. stock gets 10 points dive after hour.
when last week EBAY raised fees, I should have put it. It shows that EBAY cannot find enough growth but has to squeeze profit out of poor sellers on its website.
From chart, EBAY form a roll over U head. expect down to 70 in 2 months.
Mid-day update
Market is very bad. Consider good earnings from YHOO, IBM, CHKP
Strongs: PENN, OSTK(high short interest), HUBG
GOOG is down because YHOO is selling its GOOD shares.
I bought some SINA based on YHOO's good earning. Daytrade some DITC.
Strongs: PENN, OSTK(high short interest), HUBG
GOOG is down because YHOO is selling its GOOD shares.
I bought some SINA based on YHOO's good earning. Daytrade some DITC.
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
1/18/2005 trading record
before close get 20 YHOO FEB 22.5 calls at 1.75. YHOO close price 37.18.
ER after close. Beat 2c. AH up around 60c
Also, hold 20 FFIV Jan 45 puts(bot 1/17/2005). under water. and in danger.
ER after close. Beat 2c. AH up around 60c
Also, hold 20 FFIV Jan 45 puts(bot 1/17/2005). under water. and in danger.
1/18/2005: 52week high, home builders & retailers
Copied from etrade, record here as history reference:
Homebuilders and retailers lead the new 52-week high list. Tallies so far today for new highs vs lows are 133-21 (NYSE) and 83-22 (Nasdaq)... Sectors with good representation on the new high list today include Retail (BBW, BGP, CHS, CULS, CVS, JCP, PLCE, TOY, WAG), Restaurants (BWLD, CHKR, PNRA), Homebuilders (BZH, HOV, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL), Steel (CLF, CMC, NX, OS, TONS), Stocks Under $10 (ASTM, AVN, BTN, CECE, CULS, CYCL, ESLR, GFX, GMXR, NOVA, OBIE, PRZ, RTK, SEGU, SPTN, SYNM, TACX, TAXI, XNR).
Homebuilders and retailers lead the new 52-week high list. Tallies so far today for new highs vs lows are 133-21 (NYSE) and 83-22 (Nasdaq)... Sectors with good representation on the new high list today include Retail (BBW, BGP, CHS, CULS, CVS, JCP, PLCE, TOY, WAG), Restaurants (BWLD, CHKR, PNRA), Homebuilders (BZH, HOV, LEN, MDC, MHO, MTH, NVR, PHM, RYL), Steel (CLF, CMC, NX, OS, TONS), Stocks Under $10 (ASTM, AVN, BTN, CECE, CULS, CYCL, ESLR, GFX, GMXR, NOVA, OBIE, PRZ, RTK, SEGU, SPTN, SYNM, TACX, TAXI, XNR).
covered 40 ATVI Jan 22.5 calls
cover some, in case it spikes up.
Edit:
MM just black. ATVI has very high possibility to close at 22.5 on Fri.
Edit:
ATVI closed at 21.53 on Friday (Jan 21)
Edit:
MM just black. ATVI has very high possibility to close at 22.5 on Fri.
Edit:
ATVI closed at 21.53 on Friday (Jan 21)
GOOG show weak sign
after 2 months bull run, GOOG show weak sign. It seems cannot break all time high at 203.64
looks like an exausted run. I expect it pull back to ~185 in short term.
long term, its chart still very bullish. I believe many chart readers reach the same conclusion. that could support its price in long term.
my opinion, wait to buy on dip. I might set up some spread on dip.
Edit:
GOOG just breaks all time high. see if it can close above it.
looks like an exausted run. I expect it pull back to ~185 in short term.
long term, its chart still very bullish. I believe many chart readers reach the same conclusion. that could support its price in long term.
my opinion, wait to buy on dip. I might set up some spread on dip.
Edit:
GOOG just breaks all time high. see if it can close above it.
1/16 middle day update
SNDA : very weak -> insider selling(or predicted)?
DITC, CRDN, CMTL all reversed up.
JOBS broke down -> bad earning.
OIL reversed down from 49.4 to under 48 now.
watch PCP NCR FITB NCC.
DITC, CRDN, CMTL all reversed up.
JOBS broke down -> bad earning.
OIL reversed down from 49.4 to under 48 now.
watch PCP NCR FITB NCC.
Monday, January 17, 2005
1/18 earning preview
01/18 Eanings
ABT/.67
AMD/.08
CHKP/.29
AMTD/.19
BAC/.94
FCX/.69
IBM/1.76
JNPR/.14
LLTC/.32
MOT/.24
RYL/2.08
STX/.24
STT/.58
WFC/1.06
TER/.02
YHOO/.11
Saturday, January 15, 2005
Last week and Next week
Since the start of the year, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks has shed more than 5%, but the Russell 1000 index has fallen just 2.4%. In 2004, large-caps rose 9.4% on average while small-caps surged about 17%. ===> don't buy riskier small cap stock!
Homebuilder and steel sold off and recovered.
Watch the oild, over 48 again, how long can it last? As traders reacted to hits to production in Iraq and Norway. In addition, a wave of very cold weather heading toward the northern U.S. this week -- after a two-week wave of warmer-than-usual temperatures -- drew attention to heating oil supplies. With demand at a seasonal peak, weather patterns frequently play a key role in determining prices. Traders continue to speculate about whether OPEC will agree on another round of production cutbacks at its Jan. 30 meeting in Vienna, having already cut production by 1 million barrels a day at the beginning of this month.
Earning: 76 S&P, including YHOO(Tue) IBM(Tue) EBAY(Wed)
Homebuilder and steel sold off and recovered.
Watch the oild, over 48 again, how long can it last? As traders reacted to hits to production in Iraq and Norway. In addition, a wave of very cold weather heading toward the northern U.S. this week -- after a two-week wave of warmer-than-usual temperatures -- drew attention to heating oil supplies. With demand at a seasonal peak, weather patterns frequently play a key role in determining prices. Traders continue to speculate about whether OPEC will agree on another round of production cutbacks at its Jan. 30 meeting in Vienna, having already cut production by 1 million barrels a day at the beginning of this month.
Earning: 76 S&P, including YHOO(Tue) IBM(Tue) EBAY(Wed)
ATVI
this is a test post.
Currently I have 100 ATVI May 2005 strike 20 calls.
also, shorted 100 ATVI Jan 22.5 calls.
and I have 10 Jan 2007 strike 20 leap. will hold for 2 years.
Currently I have 100 ATVI May 2005 strike 20 calls.
also, shorted 100 ATVI Jan 22.5 calls.
and I have 10 Jan 2007 strike 20 leap. will hold for 2 years.
search related stocks
strongs:
GOOG
YHOO
ASKJ
DCLK
VCLK
weaks:
FWHT
CNET
LOOK (guide down)
MAMA (bad)
I may buy some FWHT next week.
GOOG
YHOO
ASKJ
DCLK
VCLK
weaks:
FWHT
CNET
LOOK (guide down)
MAMA (bad)
I may buy some FWHT next week.
YAHOO Note
YHOO Notes
Piper Jaffray is positive on YHOO as their checks show that the search mkt is much stronger than previously thought, possibly showing as much as 25% sequential rev growth, well above the initial 15% est by the Street. On top of this, firm believes Yahoo! gained share in 4Q and is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the impressive growth in search. Finally, their brand advertising checks also point to continued sold-out inventories (especially on Yahoo!), increased prices, and demand by advertisers for more inventory even at higher prices. Firm believes the magnitude of this strength is significantly underestimated. Thus, they raise EPS and rev ests as following: for 4Q04 to $0.11/$778 mln from $0.10/$750 mln (consensus $0.11/$754.4), for 2005 to $0.49/$3.43 bln from $0.48/$3.40 bln (consensus $0.50/$3.4 bln), and introduce 2006 ests of $0.61 and $4.27 bln (25% YoY increase). Firm also raises price tgt to $45 from $38.
Piper Jaffray is positive on YHOO as their checks show that the search mkt is much stronger than previously thought, possibly showing as much as 25% sequential rev growth, well above the initial 15% est by the Street. On top of this, firm believes Yahoo! gained share in 4Q and is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the impressive growth in search. Finally, their brand advertising checks also point to continued sold-out inventories (especially on Yahoo!), increased prices, and demand by advertisers for more inventory even at higher prices. Firm believes the magnitude of this strength is significantly underestimated. Thus, they raise EPS and rev ests as following: for 4Q04 to $0.11/$778 mln from $0.10/$750 mln (consensus $0.11/$754.4), for 2005 to $0.49/$3.43 bln from $0.48/$3.40 bln (consensus $0.50/$3.4 bln), and introduce 2006 ests of $0.61 and $4.27 bln (25% YoY increase). Firm also raises price tgt to $45 from $38.
watch list
DICT will go up
TOL, PHM bundle: sell TOL/buy PHM
MICC weak, 20 a support?
TOPT continue go up?
TOL, PHM bundle: sell TOL/buy PHM
MICC weak, 20 a support?
TOPT continue go up?
